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Jon Rahm will look to defend his title when the 2021 BMW Championship tees off on Thursday from Caves Valley Golf Club near Baltimore, Maryland. Rahm used a final round 64 to claim the victory last year and he’ll enter this week’s event full of confidence after finishing T-3 or better in each of his last three starts. The No. 1 ranked player in the world will have some stiff competition in the BMW Championship 2021 field with proven winners like Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka and Collin Morikawa set to tee it up in the second event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
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Rahm is going off as the 13-2 favorite to repeat in the latest 2021 BMW Championship odds from Caesars Sportsbook. He’s followed by Xander Schauffele (18-1), Spieth (20-1), Thomas (20-1) and Dustin Johnson (20-1) on the PGA odds board. Before locking in your 2021 BMW Championship picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed last June. In fact, it’s up almost $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
At the 2021 Open Championship, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. He was also all over Daniel Berger (+220) and Emiliano Grillo (+700) finishing inside the top-20. McClure’s best bets netted over $2,200 at the 2021 Open Championship.
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In addition, McClure’s model was all over Jon Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. And at the 2021 Masters, McClure nailed Rahm’s (+250) top-five finish in his best bets, as well as Corey Conners’ (+550) top-10 showing.
This same model has also nailed a whopping seven majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the 2021 BMW Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2021 BMW Championship leaderboard.
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The model’s top 2021 BMW Championship predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the BMW Championship 2021: Dustin Johnson, the defending FedEx Cup champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles and barely cracks the top 10. Johnson has been dominant at the BMW Championship over the years, winning this event in 2010 and 2016 and securing a runner-up finish in 2020.
However, the 24-time PGA Tour champion has struggled since winning the green jacket at the 2020 Masters. In fact, Johnson has missed the cut in two of his last three starts on the PGA Tour. Johnson’s poor form can be directly attributed to his inability to find the fairway off the tee. The 37-year-old is hitting just 58.18 percent of fairways off the tee this season, which ranks 135th on tour. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the BMW Championship 2021 field.
Another surprise: Rory McIlroy, a 28-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. McIlroy is a proven winner on the PGA Tour, having recorded 19 victories in his career. He knows he’ll need a strong performance this week at the BMW Championship in order to secure a spot at next week’s Tour Championship.
McIlroy enters this week’s event ranked 28th in the FedEx Cup standings, with the top-30 players automatically qualifying for next week’s FedEx Cup Playoffs finale. The 32-year-old is coming off a disappointing T-43 finish at the Northern Trust, but his length off the tee could benefit him this week at Caves Valley Golf Club, which plays over 7,500 yards. McIlroy ranks inside the top 10 in driving distance (318.4), strokes gained: tee-to-green (1.253) and strokes gained: off-the-tee (.687), all of which will come in handy this week at the BMW Championship 2021.